Premier League Predictions: Who is the favourite to become Premier League champions based on Sportmonks football data?

Using AI to predict the Premier League 24/25 winner

AI and data analytics are changing the game when it comes to Premier League predictions. Sportmonks’ AI-powered predictions go beyond the surface, uncovering the hidden factors that decide those nail-biting matches.

Our Premier League Prediction API goes into individual player stats, tracking the impact of game-changers like Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), and Cole Palmer (Chelsea). Imagine knowing how Haaland’s positioning influences City’s attack, or how Salah’s dribbling creates scoring opportunities. Our Player Contribution Model evaluates these crucial factors, providing insights into everything from a player’s recent form to how their absence might affect their team.

With Sportmonks, you can understand how individual performances impact the bigger picture. What if Palmer’s creativity sparks a winning streak for Chelsea? Or what if an injury sidelines Haaland? These are the “what ifs” that keep fans on the edge of their seats, and we give you the data to explore them.

Thanks to AI, Premier League predictions are more reliable than ever. Want to know how we pinpoint the frontrunners? Keep reading to discover the secrets behind our data-driven approach.

How Sportmonks uses data to identify Premier League contenders

Sportmonks analyzes a wide range of factors to pinpoint the top contenders for the Premier League title. Our platform continuously processes real-time data, including possession stats, shots on target, pass completion rates, player performance metrics, expected goals (xG), and the innovative pressure Index (a real-time metric that measures the intensity of a match by evaluating how much pressure each team applies), to provide dynamic updates throughout the season.

In addition to these features, head-to-head records and individual player influence are also factored into our Premier League predictions. By considering both team dynamics and individual brilliance, Sportmonks delivers a comprehensive and well-rounded analysis.

Why Sportmonks’ Premier League Predictions stand out

Sportmonks’ Premier League predictions leverage cutting-edge AI and machine learning to analyze the dynamic nature of English football. Our constantly updated models consider everything from team form and player fitness to tactical shifts, transfer news, and even intangible factors like managerial changes. This ensures accurate, up-to-the-minute insights throughout the demanding Premier League season.

Beyond team analysis, we look into individual player performance, tracking key metrics like passing accuracy, key passes, shots on target, dribbling success rate, and contributions from stars like Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah. We also factor in player fatigue, injury history, and historical head-to-head data which help bettors, FPL fans and football enthusiasts.

From upsets to dominance: Making sense of Premier League results

Beyond the goals and the glory lie tactical battles, individual brilliance, and moments of unexpected drama. Sportmonks’ data-driven approach helps you uncover these narratives, revealing the hidden layers within each game. Let’s dive into some key matches from this season and see how Sportmonks brings the Premier League to life through the power of data.

Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool (1-1)

This was a crucial encounter where Nottingham Forest, positioned second in the league, hosted leaders Liverpool. Despite dominating possession with 71%, Liverpool struggled to convert their chances, registering 7 shots on target compared to Forest’s 3.

Forest, on the other hand, had fewer shots but they were more effective with their 6 attempts. Forest defended strongly with 20 tackles and 58 clearances, while Liverpool, despite a higher pass count (566 vs. 235), couldn’t break down the home side’s defense.

Liverpool’s efforts paid off late when Diogo Jota, coming off the bench, found the back of the net with a header to level the game at 1-1. The match ended in a draw, denying Liverpool a chance to extend their lead at the top of the table.

Sportmonks’ model showed that Liverpool had a higher probability of winning going in, but Nottingham Forest’s defensive resilience and efficiency on the counter-attack were key to earning them a point.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United (2-2)

In this intense match, Liverpool were held to a 2-2 draw by Manchester United, despite taking a 2-1 lead in the second half. Liverpool controlled possession with 52.9%, but Manchester United’s counter-attacking play proved effective.

The visitors registered 13 shots, compared to Liverpool’s 19, and 4 shots on target, just 2 fewer than Liverpool’s 6. While Liverpool had more passes (438 vs. 383), Manchester United showed more defensive resilience, making 20 tackles and clearing the ball 26 times compared to Liverpool’s 6 tackles and 29 clearances.

United also generated more corners (9 vs. 6) and committed more fouls (13 vs. 10), showing their aggressive approach to disrupt Liverpool’s flow. Despite the hosts having more opportunities, Manchester United capitalized on the counter, earning a point with their late equalizer.

The match ended in a draw, which was a significant blow for Liverpool’s title hopes.

Sportmonks’ model had Liverpool as the favourites, but United’s defensive solidity and ability to exploit counter-attacks helped them secure a valuable draw, despite their recent struggles.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool (2-2)

Arsenal took the lead twice but were pegged back by Liverpool, with both teams registering 9 shots. Despite having less possession (44.7%) and fewer passes (383 vs. 466), Liverpool’s accuracy was evident with 4 shots on target compared to Arsenal’s 3.

Arsenal’s defense made 17 tackles and 24 clearances, but Liverpool’s tactical adaptability and squad depth allowed them to equalize each time.

The draw prevented Arsenal from gaining ground in the title race.

Sportmonks’ prediction model expected a close game, and the outcome met those expectations. The draw highlights the balanced strength of both teams, each displaying moments of brilliance but unable to claim all three points.

Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest (5-0)

Bournemouth delivered a dominant performance, highlighted by Justin Kluivert’s brilliance, in a shocking result against Nottingham Forest. Despite near-equal possession (51% vs. 49%) and fewer shots (16 vs. 18), Bournemouth were clinical, landing 10 shots on target to Forest’s 4.

Bournemouth’s defense contributed with 22 tackles and 34 clearances, while Forest struggled to make their chances count.

Sportmonks’ analysis highlighted Bournemouth’s strength at home but not the extent of their overwhelming dominance in this fixture.

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa (2-2)

Arsenal’s title hopes took a hit as they surrendered a 2-0 lead to a resilient Aston Villa. Despite dominating possession (66% vs. 34%) and registering more shots (18 vs. 8), Arsenal’s aerial defensive errors allowed Villa to capitalize, with 4 of Villa’s 8 shots on target proving critical.

Villa’s defensive effort stood out with 40 clearances and 17 tackles, countering Arsenal’s 483 passes and 10 corners.

While Sportmonks’ predictions favored Arsenal, Villa’s counter-attacking prowess and set-piece threat underlined their ability to defy the odds and earn a crucial point.

Manchester City vs. Chelsea (3-1)

Manchester City climbed into the top four with a decisive victory over Chelsea, leapfrogging their rivals in a pivotal clash. City controlled the game with 57% possession and 567 passes, translating their dominance into 15 shots, 6 of which were on target.

Chelsea managed 10 shots with 4 on target but struggled to match City’s precision and fluidity. Both sides defended evenly, with City edging tackles (13 vs. 12) and clearances (15 vs. 12).

Sportmonks’ data highlighted City’s historical strength at home and recent form (10 points from their last 12), which played out as they seized a crucial win.

Favourites to be victorious in May

Based on our comprehensive analysis of team performance, player statistics, and other key factors, Sportmonks has identified the following teams as the current favorites to win the Premier League title:

1. Liverpool: As of the most recent standings (27th January 2025), Liverpool lead the Premier League by 6 points (with a game in hand vs Everton), showcasing their depth and quality. Their high-pressing game has been complemented by the goal-scoring ability of Mohamed Salah and the dynamic play of Cody Gakpo. Key matches like their 2-2 draw with Arsenal and 1-1 vs Nottingham, where they fought back from behind, underline their resilience.

2. Arsenal: Arsenal are on Liverpool’s heels, only six points behind but with one more game played. Their squad, led by the likes of Trossard and Martin Ødegaard, have been consistent, with significant performances in matches like their draw against Liverpool and a crucial win over Wolves.

3. Manchester City: Despite sitting 12 points off the top with an extra game played, Manchester City have shown that there may still be life in them. Their recent 3-1 victory over Chelsea moved them back into the top four, reminding everyone why they’re a force to be reckoned with. While their chances of clinching the title may seem slim, the saying “City are still City” holds weight—a team known for turning long shots into league titles. Their path ahead isn’t easy, with crucial clashes against Arsenal, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, and Aston Villa. To keep their title hopes alive, City will need to win every one of these matches—a daunting, yet not impossible, task for a side of their caliber.

Dark horses and potential surprises

While the aforementioned teams are the current favorites, the Premier League is known for its unpredictability, and there are always teams capable of upsetting the established order. Here are a few dark horses that could potentially make a surprise run for the title:

1. Newcastle United: Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have shown they’re no pushovers, combining rock-solid defense with deadly counter-attacks. Their chances of a title run might be slim, but they’re not completely out of the picture. It all depends on keeping their squad fit, staying in form—especially Alexander Isak, who’s third in the Golden Boot race—and hoping a few of the big guns slip up along the way. With the way they’ve been playing and holding their own against top teams, they’ve definitely got a shot at making things interesting.
2. Nottingham Forest: Although not typically seen as title contenders, Nottingham Forest’s surprising consistency this season, including holding Liverpool to a draw, beating Villa, Brentford and Spurs, indicates they might not be out of the conversation for a higher finish if they can capitalize on their moments.
   Bournemouth: Bournemouth have had an impressive season so far, with their recent 5-0 thrashing of Nottingham Forest being a highlight. They’ve climbed to 7th in the league standings, showing they can challenge the bigger teams. Under Andoni Iraola, they’ve adopted a high-tempo, all-action style that has seen them secure notable results, including a draw against Manchester City and a win against Newcastle. Their ability to punch above their weight, combined with their current form, positions them as a dark horse with the potential to surprise in the race for the title.
3. Chelsea: Chelsea have shown signs of resurgence under Enzo Maresca, with their season’s performances indicating an upward trajectory. They’ve managed to secure a place in the top six with a victory against Wolves and a draw with Bournemouth. The blend of young talent and experienced players, along with tactical adjustments, has paid dividends. If Chelsea can be consistent, they could well be in the mix for a surprise title challenge, though they’ll need to overcome their recent inconsistencies to do so.

Why staying updated matters

The Premier League is anything but predictable. Injuries, transfers, tactical tweaks, and shock results can completely change the title race in the blink of an eye. That’s why keeping up with the latest developments is a must for anyone who wants to make smarter predictions or truly understand the league’s twists and turns.

This is where Sportmonks’ dynamic predictions come in clutch. Powered by AI, they’re constantly adapting to fresh data and real-time updates, ensuring you’re always in the know and provided with valuable insights. Whether it’s a star player like Kevin De Bruyne or Erling Haaland picking up an injury, a bold tactical change from Arsenal, or an upset that shakes up the table, Sportmonks reflects these shifts instantly.

Take Liverpool, for example—a Salah injury could hamper their title hopes, while a tactical overhaul at City might propel them to a higher finish and even fill the Rodri void. With Sportmonks, you’re not just keeping pace with the league; you’re staying one step ahead. It’s all about having the insights you need to make the smartest calls, no matter how wild the Premier League gets.